Most forecast problems are not forecasting problems. They are qualification problems that surface at the end of the quarter.
A deal gets called "commit" because the seller feels good about it, the customer was positive on the last call, and the close date is this month. Then it slips. Then it slips again. By the time leadership finds out, it is too late to replace it.
Evidence, not opinion
The fix is simple to describe and hard to hold: a deal only goes into commit when there is evidence for it. Whether you use MEDDIC, SCOTSMAN or your own framework matters less than applying one consistently. At minimum, a committed deal needs:
- An identified economic buyer who has been met, not just named.
- A decision process you can describe: who signs, in what order, with what approvals.
- A close date tied to a real event on the customer's side, not the end of your quarter.
- A quantified reason to act: what it costs the customer to do nothing.
If any of those is missing, it is best case. Not commit.
Expect the forecast to go down first
When you introduce this discipline, the committed number will usually fall. Deals that looked solid turn out to have no access to the buyer or no agreed decision process. That is uncomfortable, and it is the point. Accuracy beats optimism. A smaller number you can rely on is worth more to a board than a larger one you can't.
Make it a rhythm, not an audit
Qualification doesn't stick because of a template. It sticks because it is inspected every week. A short weekly pipeline call that goes deep on three to five deals, asking the same evidence questions every time, changes behaviour faster than any training course. Sellers stop giving status updates and start bringing evidence.
Inspect what you expect. The forecast follows.